SEVEN MAJOR POLICY REVIEW & ACTION THE PRESIDENT MUST TAKE NOW TO TRANSFORM NIGERIA'S ECONOMY, By Dr. Gbenga Adeoye

It is important to state that President Bola Ahmed Tinubu is known for MAKING  men. 

Those that are close to him confirmed that he does not say no to request for help.

 He is said to be a giver; perhaps he learnt that from Chief M.K.O Abiola. 

Clearly, he has his eyes on that seat he is occupying today for over 30 years.He worked towards it with all his energy and he built bridges all over the country to achieve that aim.

That implied preparation and building of bridges across the country is not cheap at all.You need money and time. Emi lokan slogan ( it is my turn slogan )  is not just  a mere wish ...He worked for it over the years. LET NO ONE MAKE MISTAKE ABOUT THIS.

The implication of the above preamble is that the president has good intention to make a point that through a Yoruba Man, Citizens and the country can get better with abundance, joy and economic boom as expected from Awolowo or MKO if they had become President and if course when OBJ was there Nigeria was great.We know what our people can do ...Yes as a Yoruba Man.Am glad we have such men who understand Nation Building .That is who we are though.

I believe these  are his desires and that probably account for the RENEWED HOPE AGENDA.

However, there is a Yoruba proverb that says if we don’t know where we are going, we must know where we are coming from. This going back to where we are coming from is not a sign of weakness but decision not to go too far in wrong direction

Medical practice requires that when  advertising  drugs; you must add a clause that  says, if symptoms persist after two days, consult your doctors. 

It seems the symptoms has persisted too long in our economy.

It is time to consult the stakeholders so we can jointly take Nigeria out of the current situation.

 Usually, to see light at the end of the tunnel implied that those who travel under the tunnel will be alive to end the journey and if that assumption fails to be a reality, the light at the end of the tunnel will be of no use to them.  Eni ti moto ba gba ko lo ma mu number ( Anyone hit by a car is not the one that can describe the car with plate number in evidence) ..That is if there is signs that light exist at the end of our tunnel anyway.

I therefore suggest a second look  at the following Policies.

:

A.  NAIRA FLOATING AND THE DANGER OF IT

1. Revisit the Policy of Floating the Naira. 

2. Currency devaluation is dangerous for any import dependent Nation.

3. Russia tried floating their currency, leaving it for market forces, but they reverse it and today Russia is one of the strongest economy in Europe despite the war with Ukraine.

4. Germany once floated their currency and the result was terrible until they fix same.

5. China  once floated their currency and the result was terrible and today their currency is fixed againts the dollar and they are a world power at the rate of about 7RMB to a dollar.

6. Exporting countries with positive balance of trade can devalue their currency against the dollar to attract the United State buyers and the world  to buy from them. Canada is an example and they will not allow Canadian Dollar to be stronger than the US dollar because 70% of their exports is sold to the  US market...We are not yet there. We should leas all African Countries in terms of currency value.

7. Kuwait controls their currency and their currency is stronger than pounds.  1KWD is about $3.279 

8. In China, $1 exchange for about 7.16 RMB. The main  objective is to sell to the US and world where dollar is means of exchange in most international trade transactions.  

At that rate, you are in a better position  to  buy from China even if you are in USA as your $1M will become over RMB7m. 

9. The value of a country’s currency has a lot to say about that country .

10. May we not get to the state Zimbabwe was at a time when a bottle of Coke was selling for over ZWL1m.

11. Before it is too late, let us review this policy .

12. If the main reason is to stop round tripping; that can be controlled  through technology and close monitoring of the few entities that are qualified for forex. 

We can then invest in technology to ascertain and ensure  that forex obtained is used for the purpose it was given. Those involved in round tripping are not ghost or spirit, We should deal with them rather than allow Naira to keep falling .

B. SUBSIDY REMOVAL 

1. There is no country without one form of subsidy or the other, Food, energy etc is Subsidized in many countries.

2. It is not  logical for a producer to pay the same price for a product like those who do not have the same product.

3. Yam is cheap in Benue because they produce a lot of it.

4. Orange is cheap in Benue because they produce a lot of it.

5. Cow is cheaper in the North than Lagos because they produce same 

6. Ofada Rice and Adire are Cheaper in Abeokuta than other parts of Nigeria because we produce it in my state. We have other minerals on the ground too.

7. Therefore, Federal Tax rate can be used to take back from big entities what the lowest people in the society  enjoy in terms of subsidy in Nigeria.

8. I kmow The President truly want to end the corruption in subsidy but the policy rather than hurt the big companies and all parties involved in subsidy scam,  is obviously injurious to the citizen and especially the poor.Prices will continue to rise if we don't review the policy.

9. Those who take subsidy without importing fuel are not spirit, they are not ghost and as such, it is not beyond government's capacity to catch them and ensure subsidy is not paid on fake documents.

10. The effort to ensure that subsidized PMS is not smuggled out of the country  through the land borders is not BEYOND THE CAPACITY OF THE GOVERNMENT. The Nigerian Custom is capable of achieving it if given the mandate backed with resources.I have seen efficiency and effectiness in these guys and I know they are capable.

11. In 2012, there was a Presidential Committee on Verification  and Reconciliation of Fuel Subsidy Payment  headed by Aigboje  Aig-Imoukhuede. They identified 21 companies that should refund money to Federal Government and so Ghost does not collect subsidy with fake papers. Hence it can be controlled.  While we may forget the past issues, We can set new standards now to ensure we do not pay subsidy on exported PMS through land borders.

SUBSIDY TRUST FUND -IF WE DON’T WANT TO REVERSE THE REMOVAL

i.  If the government is unable to reverse the subsidy removal because of the difficulty to block the leakages therein, then STF should be created like PTF for intervention programmes

ii. Through this Subsidy Trust Fund, solar power projects can be embarked upon

iii. Interventions such as creation of ranches and clusters, fertilisers, farm implements among others can be provided.

Iv. Primary Health Care interventions can be handled from STF. Funding of buses and rail lines.

V. Primary School projects to ensure everyone is in School; especially in the North.

C. INTEREST RATE AS A MAJOR WEAPON TO CONTROL INFLATION 

I. This is dangerous for business .

ii. It will make foreign entities to take over all sectors over time.

iii. If a Chinese business man get loans at say 5% from China, he will have leverage over a Nigerian who get same loan at 30%

Iv. For example, $1M from China at 5% will imply that his $1m will become like N1.6b and even with that exchange rate, he will only pay N80,000,000 interest per annum. If a Nigerian gets the same N1.6b, annual interest will be N480,000,000 at 30%.

V. Same market, same product , with cost of fund, the Nigerian business man will be pushed out of business over time, Where would you pass the extra cost of funds to ?

Vi. Devaluation in currency and high interest rate is a step in the wrong direction in my considered opinion and the CBN should review this as the signs are not good  when businesses owned by Nigerians are compared with those owned by Chinese or other foreigners.

D. NATIONAL SECURITY AND STATE POLICING ESPECIALLY ON THE FARMS 

I. On this, the FGN does not require any admonition. Even the blind and the deaf knows no farmer will go to farm without assurance of security.

ii. The President and all the Military Chiefs know this and I think the strategy should be to deal with those sponsoring the killers of farmers 

iii. More Police men should be recruited and farmers should be assured that they are safe.

Iv. Farm Settlements owned by states should be revived and am glad the FGN is looking at that.

v. Clusters should be created in each local government based on what we can grow in each state.

VI. Make it a crime for any child in the North and all other parts of the country not to go to school .The recent Protest and outcome clearly shows direct correlation between Uneducated hungary people and violence aimed at  looting.

VII. Most of the people that cause crisis or engage in looting with just a little chance  like protest and so on are people who do not have good education and means of livelihood.

VIII. State Policing should not just be a mere paper discussion, It should be implemented as fast as possible 

E. RESTRUCTURING FOR EFFECTIVENESS

I. If there is anyone who understand the benefit of regional system of Government; Asiwaju Bola Ahmed TINUBU is No 1.

ii. He was Governor of Lagos State with the mindset of making it a self sustaining state. Lagos in deed is ahead as a state that can stand alone.

iii. Most of the states that refuse to think out of the box are being unserious because they know their father ( FGN) will give them money monthly. Even though the money has no effect. I discovered that most of the state that are serious about IGR in a way invest in development while states without serious IGR do squander what they get from their father ( FGN) 

iii. Some people have said that as soon as allocation is released by FAAC to such states account for the pressure in the forex market. May be they are right . Like J.F Odunjo said and I quote first in Yoruba; oun ti a ko ba jiya fun ki pe lowo.( what you don't work for do not last in your hands.) ..Let us find a way of rewarding sub nationals that are serious .

F. REFORM NATIONAL ORIENTATION AGENCY.

I. I see the level of ignorance in people who cut off railings on bridges, I suspect they lack knowledge.Poverty is not the only problem.

National Orientation Agency needs to promote Patriotism on radio, motor parks, market places, villages and cities.

G. REJIG THE CABINET. FIRE THOSE ADDING NO VALUE

Some persons have ambition to add to their CV that they are former Ministers.

I think it will not be too good to have people still remaining in the cabinet if they cannot perform, there must be KPI...Key 

Performance Index.

These are the kind of cabinet members that will deceive the president that all is well with all our policies when they are not even adding any value.

One Major thing I love as a Lawyer and Chartered Accountant is contract that is based on milestones. If you like speak all the grammar , you will not get paid if you do not complete each stage as stipulated in the contract. To remain as a Minister after every six month, there must be an appraisal of performance known to Nigerians.

CONCLUSION

It is important to review the above policies if we want different result.

If need be,  let us look round even among opposition and harvest best brains to profer solution to our problems

We can all be sincerely and honestly wrong and what we then have to do is to try other means of solving our problems, if the methods and policies  we are using  at the moment are counter productive.

Some wicked people want the Economy to have problem till 2026 so they can use it to campaign but with or without such people in existence, We must review current policies as the ficus should be citizens first.

If need be let us look round even among opposition and harvest best brains .

We can all be sincerely and honestly wrong and what then have to do is to try other means of solving our problem if the method we are using is giving unexpected result.

Lastly .  There is a Yoruba Proverb that says ; Ti ina oba tan lori, eje kii tan leekana.

It simply could mean that as long as problem persist , agitation and tension will remain.

The symptoms have persisted, we need to see the doctor.

The drug advert simply means we stop using the drug to take doctors advice.

In medicine the doctors will tell you drug-drug transactions can cause serious problems and that may account for why you did not see changes in your health 

I suspect that the interactions between interest rate, Naira Floating and Subsidy removal are not interacting in the best interest of the people and it is never too late to sit down and review.

Let's try something  else for 90 days and see the result. 

I love my country and I want the President to succeed, please don't listen to those people saying all is well sir.

Try something different for 90 to 180 days.

God bless Nigeria.

The Author, 

Dr. Gbenga Adeoye is a Lawyer and Chartered Accountant, he holds a Master's  Degree in International Business Law from University of London. He holds a  PhD in Management Accounting and he is an Arbitrator of UK and Nigeria.He is an advocate of Good Governance in Africa and Nigeria.