FROM CONSENSUS TO CONTENTIONS; APC vs APC, By ESV Rt. Hon. Remmy Hazzan, PhD, FNIVS, FCIArb (UK), RSV

When it comes to politics, it's all about interests, but keeping things stable relies on good management. Inside every political party, there are ambitions to fulfill, loyalties to honour, balances to strike, and egos to manage with care. When these competing forces come together through open dialogue, inclusivity, and smart compromises, that's when consensus is born. On the flip side, when exclusion, imposition, distrust, and political arrogance take the lead, contention is bound to follow. This is the reality that the All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ogun State is currently facing.

Interestingly, the conversation around who will succeed Governor Dapo Abiodun in 2027 seems to be unfolding in a calm, measured, and strategic manner within the APC. It looks like key players are making a conscious effort to sidestep unnecessary conflicts over the succession. Major factions within the party appear to be well-consulted, important interests are being managed with care, and political figures are showing restraint for the sake of party stability. This is politics at its finest.

But let’s be clear: consensus doesn’t just happen by chance. It’s usually the result of careful negotiations, quiet talks, mutual respect, and strategic give-and-take. So far, the discussions about the governorship in Ogun State have reflected this reality. While there might still be some unspoken disagreements lurking beneath the surface, the overall vibe suggests that party leaders recognize the risks of letting the gubernatorial race turn into an all-out battle too soon. This relative calm around the governorship issue highlights an important political truth: people can accept outcomes they might not fully agree with if they feel respected throughout the process. Inclusion eases resistance. Consultation curbs rebellion. Political engagement lessens bitterness. Even those who might end up on the losing side are more likely to cooperate when they feel heard, acknowledged, and treated fairly.

However, beyond the calculations for the governorship, there's a brewing storm that threatens the internal stability of the APC in Ogun State. While it seems like there's a consensus guiding the gubernatorial succession, the atmosphere surrounding other elective offices within the party is anything but harmonious. From the intricacies of senatorial races to ambitions for the House of Representatives, state assembly interests, local political dynamics, and battles for party supremacy, tensions are on the rise. What should be a healthy internal competition is increasingly morphing into factional hostility. Aspirants are becoming more confrontational, support groups are digging in their heels, and political camps are gearing up for aggressive showdowns. The language of negotiation is slowly being replaced by resistance, defiance, and subtle rebellion.

This situation is perilous for any ruling party as it approaches a major election cycle. A party can withstand attacks from the opposition, but internal strife can be far more damaging than external pressures. History has shown us time and again that political parties don’t just lose elections because their opponents are stronger; they often falter due to unresolved internal issues that sap their collective strength before the contest even kicks off. The APC in Ogun State must recognize that ignoring internal grievances can turn into electoral liabilities down the line. An aspirant who feels sidelined today could become a silent saboteur tomorrow. A bloc that’s overlooked today might transform into a protest vote machine in the future. Politics has a way of punishing exclusion, especially in fiercely competitive democratic settings.

One key reason the governorship consensus process seems to be going smoothly is that the stakeholders involved understand the importance of broad engagement. Political heavyweights, local influencers, legacy blocs, and strategic interests are all being carefully considered. This approach helps to reduce suspicion and prevents the feeling that decisions are being imposed from above. It's unfortunate that the same level of careful management isn't consistently applied across other elective contests within the party. In various circles, there are growing concerns about political marginalization, fears of imposition, selective consultation, structural intimidation, and the feeling that certain entrenched interests are monopolizing party opportunities.

When these perceptions go unchecked, it's only natural for resentment to build. And as resentment grows within political parties, rebellion is bound to follow. Internal democracy starts to falter, trust erodes, and parallel loyalties begin to form. Political players may start to prioritize their own survival over the unity of the party. This is a crucial moment for the APC in Ogun State to tread carefully. Political dominance can sometimes create a false sense of security, making it seem like internal divisions don’t matter. However, the electoral landscape in Nigeria is shifting rapidly. Voters are becoming less emotionally tied to party identities and are increasingly swayed by changing political dynamics. A divided ruling party heading into a major election is always at risk.

While the opposition may seem fragmented or weak in Ogun State right now, their strength often grows from the missteps of the ruling party. Nothing energizes opposition forces more than internal turmoil within a dominant party. Once the cracks start to show, external political actors will begin to exploit them strategically. Therefore, the APC must be careful not to create unnecessary political refugees within its own ranks. Every unresolved conflict has its consequences. Every overlooked stakeholder is a potential source of future instability. Every ambition that isn’t managed well can breed bitterness that might resurface during elections.

There's a real risk of overconfidence creeping in. When political parties hold power for a long time, they can start to think that winning is a given, no matter what’s happening behind the scenes. This mindset can be historically perilous. Winning elections isn’t just about being in office; it relies on having a united front, loyal grassroots support, and a well-oiled political machine. When a political party is divided, it hampers campaign efforts. It dampens the enthusiasm of volunteers, disrupts funding channels, and leads to mixed messages. This division also weakens grassroots mobilization and, crucially, confuses undecided voters who might see internal strife as a sign of instability or poor leadership.

The phrase “APC Against APC” highlights a troubling trend that’s currently surfacing in Ogun State politics. The biggest challenge the party might face as we approach 2027 may not come from rival parties, but rather from unresolved internal conflicts within the APC itself. This situation calls for proactive leadership instead of just reacting to crises. It’s much easier to prevent political turmoil than to fix it once it escalates. When resentment turns into open conflict, mending fences becomes a tough task. Party leaders need to act swiftly to ease tensions before factions become too entrenched.

Promoting internal democracy is one of the best ways to fend off political rebellion. When party members feel that processes are open, competitive, and fair, even those who don’t win often stay loyal to the party. But when outcomes seem rigged or predetermined, resistance is almost a given. Therefore, the APC leadership in Ogun State should focus on maintaining credibility in all electoral contests, not just the race for governor. Every position is politically significant because each ambition comes with emotional investment, financial commitment, and a network of support behind it.

Another key issue we need to tackle is communication. Many political crises don't escalate just because of the decisions made, but rather due to the poor communication that surrounds those decisions. When there's silence, it breeds suspicion. When people feel excluded, conspiracy theories start to take root. And when clarity is lacking, misinformation runs rampant. That's why strategic engagement and open communication are absolutely vital. The party also needs to keep in mind that political structures are as much about human emotions as they are about calculations. People crave relevance, recognition, access, and dignity in political arrangements. Overlooking these emotional aspects can lead to unnecessary pushback. Ogun State has a long history of being politically savvy. The political players here are experienced, strategic, and fully aware of their impact. This means that any attempts at heavy-handed political suppression or one-sided imposition could backfire more than anticipated.

The current governorship consensus model offers valuable insights for the party as a whole. It shows that political harmony is possible when consultations are sincere and interests are thoughtfully balanced. This level of maturity needs to be applied to other elective positions within the APC as well. If we fail to do this, the party risks heading into the 2027 elections looking fragmented, even if it appears stable on the surface. Public unity without genuine internal trust is often short-lived. Eventually, unresolved issues will come to light at the worst possible times. The fallout from factional disunity during elections can be catastrophic. Disgruntled party members might engage in anti-party activities, back protest candidates, sabotage campaigns, hinder voter mobilization, leak internal strategies, or even quietly team up with opposition forces.

Political history in Nigeria is rich with stories of dominant parties that have crumbled from within. Often, opposition parties have simply taken advantage of the rifts that ruling parties have created for themselves through arrogance, exclusion, and poor conflict management. The APC in Ogun State still has a chance to steer clear of such pitfalls. The current tensions are manageable, but acting quickly is essential. It's crucial to prioritize stakeholder reconciliation, broader consultations, fair power-sharing, and transparent processes right away. Party leadership needs to resist the lure of winner-takes-all politics. Lasting political strength is rarely built on exclusion. Strong parties thrive because they foster environments where diverse interests can coexist without jeopardizing overall stability.

Consensus shouldn’t just be a strategy for winning the governorship; it should evolve into a guiding philosophy for the party. When consensus becomes selective, conflict will inevitably arise elsewhere. Stability in one area can't make up for unrest in multiple others. As we move closer to 2027, the APC in Ogun State is facing a crucial internal challenge. The party can either strengthen its position through inclusive management and strategic unity or weaken itself through unchecked ambition and rising factionalism.

In the end, politics isn't just about seizing power; it's about maintaining coalitions. And those coalitions thrive not by ignoring differences but by managing them thoughtfully. If the APC can't effectively handle its growing internal conflicts, the phrase “APC Against APC” might turn from a mere political slogan into a harsh reality that threatens the party’s electoral prospects in Ogun State.

Remmy Hazzan, an APC member writes from Omu-Ijebu (Ward 14), Odogbolu LGA, Ogun State

7th May 2026.