2018: The zones, the actors

January 7, 2018
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As political actors neaten preparations for the general election,
DARE ADEKANMBI x-rays some of the politicians who will
shape national play from the zones. This week, he examines
the North-West and the South-West zones.
ALTHOUGH the general election is not due until February 2019,
preparations are expected to hot up from this year, especially
with prelude governorship elections coming up in Osun and
Ekiti states. The two big parties, the All Progressives Congress
(APC) and the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), will want to
use the elections to test strength and measure acceptance
and popularity in the build up to the general election the
following year.
Apart from issues such as the health of the economy,
performance of the incumbent President Muhammadu Buhari
in the key sectors and more, the truism that every politics is
local will also factor in the national political play in 2019. Thus,
events in zones will largely shape the national landscape as
the elections gain momentum.
Consequently, political actors in the key zones who will largely
shape the direction and the outcome of voting in their
respectively zones are hereunder x-rayed.
North-West zone
As the zone with the highest number of registered voters,
there is no downplaying the fact that it will be the hottest zone
where the election is expected to be fiercely contested. It was
the zone that gave Buhari victory over Dr Goodluck Jonathan
of the PDP. But is the zone now what it was in 2015? The
answer remains to be seen.
Buhari
Some will argue that Buhari still has a cult-like following in the
zone, especially with the massive crowd that welcomed him to
Kano State late last year. But others counter that the cohesion
and coherence seen in the zone in the 2015 elections have
been greatly undermined. But with the release of over 2,000
names of federal agency and board appointees by the Federal
Government last week, President Buhari’s strategy is to soothe
frayed nerves within the party as another round of elections
beckons.
Kwankwaso
In Kano State, where the largest votes came from in 2015,
there has been a big schism in the APC family. Dr Rabiu
Kwankwaso, immediate past governor of the state and Senator
representing Kano Central in the Red Chamber is in bitter
disagreement with the Governor Abdulahi Ganduje whom he
installed. No sooner had the government set sail than Senator
Kwankwaso raised the alarm that operatives of the Economic
and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) were being used to
hound him. The State House of Assembly also passed a
resolution directing government officials to remove all
insignias of Kwankwasiya Movement from all public schools
and institutions. The move was said to have been influenced
by the governor. Following this closely was a series of public
fights between loyalists of Kwankwaso and the governor.
On the heels of the defection of former Vice-President Atiku
Abubakar to the PDP, speculations were rife that Kwankwaso
might join Atiku in the umbrella party. How things pan out
politically in Kano will go a long way in determining the shape
of event in the zone.
El-Rufai versus Sen Sani
It is no longer news that there is no love lost between the
governor of Kaduna State, Mallam Nasir el-Rufai and the
Senator representing Kaduna Central, Shehu Sani. APC is
fractured in the state between loyalists of the two
heavyweights. The latter has been very critical of the APC
government at the centre and in the state. He it is who chaired
the Senate Committee that unraveled the misuse of public
funds under the Presidential Initiative for the North East
(PINE), culminating in the infamous N250m grass cutting
contract and more. He also clamped down on the Federal
Government’s anti-corruption crusade, noting how government
sprays harmless and ineffective deodorant on any APC person
smelling of corruption, while the same government applies a
harmful and effective insecticide if the a member of the
opposition party is involved.
Bitter clashes have ensued between supporters and loyalists
of Governor el-Rufai and Senator Sani. Events in Kaduna are
expected to determine how the land lies in the zone politically
in 2019.
Sule Lamido
Immediate past governor of Jigawa State, Sule Lamido, has
been a presidential hopeful on the platform of PDP. He is said
to be a beloved godson of former President Olusegun
Obasanjo and one politician who is known throughout the
country. He surely is a big voice in the PDP as one of the
founding members of the party. However, he has had a
running battle with the EFCC, along with his sons, over alleged
misappropriation of public funds. That case will determine
whether his political move in 2019.
Others leading lights in the zone include the governor of
Sokoto State, Aminu Tambuwal; Sani Yerima of Zamfara State;
Senator Ahmed Makarfi of Kaduna; Ibrahim Shekarau, Kano;
Sambo Nnamadi, Kaduna and many more.
South-West
After the North-West zone, the South-West with the second
highest number of votes comes to the fore as the hotbed of
high-wire politics in the country. Except in Ekiti State, Buhari
won five states in the zone, with Oyo State giving him in
excess of 500, 000 votes, the highest in the entire southern
part of the country. As far as the APC family is concerned in
the zone, there are those who have been labeled the
‘President’s men’ and the Jargaban men.
It is equally a similar scenario for the opposition PDP which
controls only one out of the six states in the region, where
there are ‘the Paul and the Apollo’ groups in many state
chapters.
Tinubu
By virtue of APC being the dominant party in the South-West
and given his role in the enthronement of Buhari as president,
Senator Bola Tinubu, a leader in the party, is numero uno
among those to watch as 2019 elections draw nearer.
Many believe Tinubu has been treated as an outsider in the
party he sweated to put together with others. There was a test
of might between Tinubu and the Abuja boys in the Ondo
State governorship election, with the latter clinching a sweet
victory.
Tinubu and other came down hard on the party chair, Chief
John Odigie-Oyegun for ‘killing’ internal democracy in the
process leading to the emergence of the party’s standard
bearer in the Ondo election. The relationship between Tinubu
and Abuja waxed further cold until Atiku dumped the APC for
PDP and Tinubu almost became the president’s man Friday,
jetting out with him on trips.
Observers, however, opine that with statement by Tinubu that
the presidential ticket is open and that the governors cannot
lord their choice on the party, it remains to be seen if he will
be disposed to working for Buhari’s emergence.
There are those who think Tinubu may agree to work for
Buhari but may ask if the president is ready to sacrifice his
boys.
Obasanjo
Despite his declaring to play the role of a statesman and
father to all, former President Olusegun Obasanjo is a factor in
not just South-West but also national politics. Apart from the
Tinubu men and the PDP group, the third main group in the
zone is the group of OBJ’s loyalists who even sometimes
intersect the two parties.
Obasanjo backed Buhari and openly worked against the re-
election of Jonathan. But observers noted the fact that it was
not until towards the twilight of 2017 that some of his loyalists
got patronage from the Buhari government. According to
them, Obasanjo might be cold in throwing his weight behind
Buhari again, with reports linking him with Dankwambo of
Gombe.
Fayose
Seen as the only thorn in the flesh by the APC government,
Ekiti State governor is undoubtedly a man to watch in 2018
and the 2019 elections. First, his state will attract national
focus as he faces the most critical election for him. He is
hoping to install a successor amidst opposition from APC and
scuffle from the PDP house in the state.
Fayose is also going to shape the direction of presidential
politics, at least as far as who gets the ticket in the PDP where
he is the chairman of the governors elected on the party’s
platform is concerned. Fayose is said to be backing Gombe
State governor, Ibrahim Dankwambo, whom he is also
speculated to be wishing to pair with as his running mate.
Former governors of Oyo State, Rashidi Ladoja, Adebayo Alao-
Akala; Prince Olagunsoye Oyinlola, Senator Iyiola Omisore
from Osun; Dr Olusegun Mimiko from Ondo State will all play
roles in the zone too.
Osinbajo, Amosun, Fashola, Fayemi
Vice-President Yemi Osinbajo will surely play a role as
scheming for 2019 is revved up in the zone. He is closely
connected to Tinubu and report of the former Lagos State
governor angling to replace him on the ticket was punctured
by Tinubu himself who declared that he nursed no such
ambition.
Ogun State governor, Ibikunle Amosun, who is arguably the
closest to the president from the zone, is a man many turn to
get a glimpse of Buhari’s body language. Amosun is said to
have influenced a large number of appointees of federal board
jobs in the zone. In fact, the development is said to have
angered one of his colleagues who called him to register his
displeasure over how some names featured in the list.
Fashola and Fayemi complete the list of Buhari’s men in the
zone. The quartet of Governor Rotimi Akeredolu, Amosun,
Fashola and Fayemi are being positioned as the new face of
“progressive leadership” in the South-West for APC. Mallam
el-Rufai is said to be in the vanguard of the campaign for
change in the face of leadership across the zones. Can the
young Turks depose the oldies? Time will tell.
The North-West and the South-West zones will largely
determine where the pendulum will swing in 2019 and actors
are not ignoring these zones. Whichever party get the majority
of votes in the two zones can boast of forming the Presidency
next year. For many in the zones, it is going to be a clash of
titans and the major part of that clash will take place in 2018.